India vs. China LNG in 2026: Two Asian Giants, Two Very Different Demand Signals
China remains the larger LNG importer, with 2026 imports projected at roughly 61–64 million MT, versus 28–29 million MT for India. But the more important story this year is how differently the two markets responded to the Iran-US conflict and the disruption of Middle Eastern LNG flows.
Month-by-Month
Jan–Feb: Demand was relatively normal before the conflict. India imported about 4.45 MT combined, while China’s February imports fell to approximately 3.38 MT.
March: The shock hit. India imported 1.68 MT and China 3.78 MT as attacks on Qatar and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sent Asian LNG prices sharply higher. JKM briefly exceeded $25/MMBtu.
April: India remained constrained at ~1.75 MT, while China fell to roughly 3.4–3.6 MT, an eight-year low. JKM eased toward the mid-$15s as ceasefire expectations emerged.
May: Both markets recovered. India reached 2.10 MT and China 4.74 MT. JKM briefly approached $20 before retreating toward the mid-$15s.
June: India rose to 2.66 MT, up 28% YoY, while China reached 4.48 MT. JKM again approached $20 before easing.
July: Estimated imports were ~2.2 MT India and ~5.5 MT China. Prices moved higher as Middle East risks intensified.
August: The divergence became striking. India imported 2.6 MT, a six-year high and 40% YoY increase, despite LNG prices averaging around $21/MMBtu. China imported an estimated 5.2 MT, down 18% YoY.
Why the divergence?
China has greater flexibility: rising domestic production, pipeline gas and discounted Russian LNG have reduced its dependence on spot LNG. High prices therefore suppress incremental demand.
India has been far less price-sensitive. Fertilizer, power and industrial requirements have supported purchases, while the loss of Qatari supply accelerated diversification toward the US, Oman, Nigeria and other suppliers.
The key takeaway: China is increasingly optimizing LNG economics; India is increasingly optimizing energy security.
If Middle East disruptions persist, that difference could become an increasingly important driver of global LNG flows, JKM pricing and US LNG exports.
Sources:
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