Source: GROK Predictive markets are increasingly shaping how analysts interpret geopolitical risk—often offering clearer, faster signals than traditional intelligence channels. Nowhere is this more evident than in markets tracking the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus aggregate thousands of independent forecasts. While each uses different mechanisms, all point to the same broad takeaway: low near-term proba

Source: Twitter (X) In recent weeks, a swirl of geopolitics—from Iran to China to Russia—is casting a growing shadow over global energy markets. These tensions aren’t just headlines; they’re potential inflection points for risk premiums, upstream disruptions, and price volatility. Iran: Drought, Crackdowns & Tanker Seizures Iran is grappling with a historic drought, rising internal unrest, and the seizure of a Marshall Islands–flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Becau

Source: SuperGrok The global LNG market is once again being reshaped—not by price cycles or supply shocks, but by tariffs and...

Source: Google Maps As we enter late 2025, the natural gas market stands at a critical juncture, shaped by global demand shifts, policy...

Source: TradingView (TTF-HH Spread) The spread between Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and U.S. Henry Hub (HH) natural gas...

Source: BBC Tensions in the Middle East are once again testing global energy stability. The Iran-Israel conflict has escalated into a new...

Source: MEHR News Agency A renewed peace agreement between the US and Iran—potentially reviving or replacing the JCPOA—could reshape...

Source: GROK The long-anticipated Alaska LNG project is gaining momentum, and in light of proposed Trump tariffs, Japan is reportedly...

Source: Panama Canal The Panama Canal, a cornerstone of global trade, has become a heated battleground as former President Donald Trump...