#Geopolitics

Energy Consultancy | Wellhead to Global LNG, Sustainability and AI

China’s LNG Futures Gambit: Redrawing the Rules of Global Gas Trade

Source: Shanghai Futures Exchange China is taking a decisive step toward reshaping global LNG pricing with plans to introduce LNG futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). For the world’s largest LNG importer, this is about far more than financial innovation—it’s about control, transparency, and strategic leverage. Who benefits most? Chinese domestic LNG importers gain a powerful new hedging tool tied to local demand fundamentals. A yuan-denominated LNG contract reduce

Timothy Beggans

2 days ago2 min read

Japan’s LNG Storage Strategy: Building a Shock Absorber for a Volatile World

Source: JERA Japan is quietly reshaping the global LNG market by expanding storage capacity—and the reasons go far beyond winter demand. At the core is energy security. Japan imports nearly all of its natural gas, yet lacks a fully connected national pipeline system. LNG storage tanks function as the country’s primary buffer, ensuring power and industrial continuity when global supply chains falter. Storage is also becoming an economic shock absorber. With LNG prices increasi

Timothy Beggans

3 days ago1 min read

The probability of conflict: How predictive markets reflect geopolitical realities

Source: GROK Predictive markets are increasingly shaping how analysts interpret geopolitical risk—often offering clearer, faster signals than traditional intelligence channels. Nowhere is this more evident than in markets tracking the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus aggregate thousands of independent forecasts. While each uses different mechanisms, all point to the same broad takeaway: low near-term proba

Timothy Beggans

Dec 4, 20252 min read

The Fog of War, Fractures and Rifts: How Will the Energy Markets React?

Source: Twitter (X) In recent weeks, a swirl of geopolitics—from Iran to China to Russia—is casting a growing shadow over global energy markets. These tensions aren’t just headlines; they’re potential inflection points for risk premiums, upstream disruptions, and price volatility. Iran: Drought, Crackdowns & Tanker Seizures Iran is grappling with a historic drought, rising internal unrest, and the seizure of a Marshall Islands–flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Becau

Timothy Beggans

Nov 20, 20252 min read