TTF-HH Spread Set to Widen: Key Drivers to Watch
- Timothy Beggans
- Jul 8
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 10
The spread between Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and U.S. Henry Hub (HH) natural gas benchmarks is poised to grow as structural and geopolitical factors drive European prices higher. Here’s why the TTF-HH spread could widen in 2025.
Storage Imbalance
Germany’s gas storage is critically low at <50% full (July 2025), lagging 2023 levels due to high consumption and reduced imports. Conversely, U.S. storage stands at 74%, per EIA, keeping HH prices subdued ($3.41/MMBtu). Europe’s need to refill before winter is boosting TTF demand and prices ($11.57/MMBtu).
LNG Competition
U.S. LNG cargoes follow the highest bidder. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) for August delivery is $13.16/MMBtu, outpacing TTF at $11.57/MMBtu (Platts). To divert LNG from Asia, TTF prices must rise, widening the spread with HH.
Strait of Hormuz Risks
Iran’s reported suspension of UN nuclear inspections raises concerns of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for ~20% of global LNG trade. Qatar, supplying ~10% of Europe’s LNG, faces disruption risks, which could spike TTF prices.
Ukraine War Tensions
Potential targeting of Russian LNG facilities, which supply ~8% of Europe’s gas, could further tighten supply. Any disruption would amplify TTF volatility, as Europe scrambles for alternatives.
Seasonal Pressure
The TTF-HH correlation (~0.7, 2018-2022) strengthens in winter due to European heating demand, but summer divergences and low storage are pushing TTF higher now, widening the spread. Europe’s exposure to storage gaps, LNG market dynamics, and geopolitical risks signals a turbulent path ahead. Traders and analysts should monitor these factors closely.
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