Source: Tradingview.com (ERCOT North Spark Spread) In energy markets, spreads such as spark and dark (and their “clean” variants) reveal the economic incentives for power-plant dispatch. They also act as support or resistance levels for underlying fuels — especially natural gas. Spark Spread The spark spread measures the theoretical margin for a gas-fired generator. Formula: Spark Spread = Electricity Price − (Natural Gas Price × Heat Rate) Dark Spread The dark spread applie

Source: www.pivotalweather.com Pipeline systems depend on balance—too much gas in or too much taken out can threaten pressure, integrity, and firm service. That’s why operators issue Operational Flow Orders (OFOs), a critical tool to stabilize system conditions during stress. Why OFOs Are Called   OFOs typically arise when linepack is tight, weather spikes demand, storage swings are limited, or shippers’ receipts and deliveries drift out of balance. When these conditions thr

Source: IEA After years as the driver of global LNG growth, China has eased off the throttle in 2025. Imports have slipped as domestic gas production rises, pipeline flows from Russia expand, industrial demand softens, and rapid renewable additions cut into gas-fired power. Cargoes once destined for China are increasingly redirected to Europe, Japan, South Korea, and emerging Asia. The Positives • Price relief:  A major supply wave from the U.S., Qatar, and others arriving 20

Source: Xai (Colossus site) After years of breakneck expansion, some of the nation’s largest data-center markets — including Virginia and parts of PJM — are showing signs of cooling demand. Not because tech is slowing, but because power, water, and retail rate pressure are forcing a rethink. In northern Virginia, long the epicenter of hyperscale development, utilities and regulators are signaling that future growth cannot rely on unlimited access to cheap electricity and wate

Source: Elk Trading Company LLC Natural gas producers operate in a landscape shaped by weather volatility, LNG-driven baseload demand, and shifting production growth. In this environment, hedging isn’t a luxury—it’s fundamental risk management. While structures evolve with market conditions, three tools dominate E&P portfolios: swaps, costless collars, and three-way collars. Each carries a different balance of protection, opportunity, and complexity. Swaps The most widely use

Source: Twitter (X) In recent weeks, a swirl of geopolitics—from Iran to China to Russia—is casting a growing shadow over global energy markets. These tensions aren’t just headlines; they’re potential inflection points for risk premiums, upstream disruptions, and price volatility. Iran: Drought, Crackdowns & Tanker Seizures Iran is grappling with a historic drought, rising internal unrest, and the seizure of a Marshall Islands–flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Becau

Source: Pivotal Weather (December 1, 2025) As we turn toward the tail end of the year, the energy derivatives market is flashing clear signals of concern—and opportunity. Both December and January call-option activity on the CME Group’s energy complex show elevated volume in deep out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes, pointing to traders hedging for upside exposure amid a potential cold snap. Here’s what’s driving the shift: Recent weather-model runs from both the GFS (Global Foreca

Source: TradingView.com Natural gas equities are surging as colder December forecasts drive renewed bullish sentiment across the market. Leading producers like EQT, Comstock (CRK), Antero (AR), and CNX  have all rallied in recent sessions, boosted by expectations of stronger heating demand and record-setting LNG export volumes . While updated models now project higher Heating Degree Days (HDDs) for December, they still trail last year’s levels. Yet, the market’s reaction sugg

Source: Elk Trading Company LLC The natural gas market is heading into a new era of volatility. As U.S. LNG exports and data centers surge, the share of baseload  (24/7/365) demand continues to grow — permanently altering the balance of flexibility that has historically smoothed seasonal swings. This shift means the remaining variable components of demand—industrial, residential, and power generation—will become more reactive to even minor shifts in weather, pipeline constrai

Source: GROK Energy markets expose a fundamental flaw in human decision-making: we misjudge risk. Daniel Kahneman, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, explains how our fast, emotional “System 1” often overrides deliberate reasoning. Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile trilogy adds that systems built on false stability eventually collapse under volatility. Together, they explain why billion-dollar energy failures keep repeating. Kahneman’s Cognitive Traps Anchoring Bias : After the 2014 oil cr

Source: https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ The U.S. natural gas grid is being reshaped by two powerful new demand drivers: AI data...

Source: Tradingview.com Natural gas futures are firming. The prompt contract has rebounded from recent lows, supported by...

Source: SuperGrok EQT Corporation, the largest U.S. natural gas producer, is executing a “wellhead-to-water” LNG strategy aimed at capturing international premiums and diversifying beyond domestic markets. The plan, highlighted in the Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation and recent announcements, rests on long-term liquefaction capacity secured via 20-year Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs). Core Moves in 2025: Commonwealth LNG (LA): 1.0 MTPA under SPA, FID expected 2025. Rio Grand

Source: TradingView.com The November 2025–March 2026 natural gas winter strip is heating up, now averaging $3.807 , up from a recent low...

Source: ChatGPT The global natural gas market is navigating a mix of bullish and bearish signals as we move through late summer 2025:...

Source: Energy Transfer Once considered a declining natural gas province, the San Juan Basin  may be staging a comeback thanks to the...

Source: ERCOT ERCOT’s grid is undergoing one of the fastest transformations in the U.S., driven by two forces: record renewable...

Source: Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE Natural gas prices are still looking for a floor as bullish and bearish forces compete in...

Source: Google Maps As we enter late 2025, the natural gas market stands at a critical juncture, shaped by global demand shifts, policy...

Source: TradingView.com Trading natural gas is all about production risk , and the biggest long-term threat? Freeze-offs. As winter...