Heat Miser vs. Freeze Miser… who’s winning?
- Timothy Beggans
- 15 hours ago
- 2 min read
As December 2025 unfolds, the U.S. weather pattern feels familiar—but not identical—to what we experienced in January 2025. The same climate “players” are on the field, yet their alignment is subtly different, shifting the balance between warmth and cold.
Below is a side-by-side snapshot of the key atmospheric drivers.
Climate Indices: Then vs. Now
ENSO
• Mid-Dec 2025: Weak La Niña continues
• Jan 2025: La Niña firmly in place
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Mid-Dec 2025: Forecast to trend negative, raising the risk of blocking and cold air delivery
• Jan 2025: Oscillated—negative early, turning positive late month
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• Mid-Dec 2025: Forecasted negative, supportive of eastern U.S. cold outbreaks
• Jan 2025: Positive during the latter half, limiting sustained cold
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
• Mid-Dec 2025: Negative, following a record-setting –4.0σ extreme in July 2025
• Jan 2025: Strongly negative, reinforcing La Niña impacts
Pacific–North American (PNA)
• Mid-Dec 2025: Negative, keeping the polar jet farther north
• Jan 2025: Positive early, helping drive a notable mid-month cold shot
What it means on the ground
December 2025: A weak La Niña plus a deeply negative PDO favors colder and snowier conditions in the Northern Tier and Pacific Northwest, while the South and Southeast skew milder and drier. A potential negative AO/NAO raises the odds of episodic cold, but the jet stream remains reluctant to fully buckle—so far.
January 2025: The U.S. saw sharper temperature swings. After a warm finish to December 2024, January delivered an east-west split and a memorable mid-month cold outbreak across the Plains and East.
Verdict:
Freeze Miser is gaining leverage as blocking risks rise, but Heat Miser still has enough jet-stream support to keep extremes uneven. For energy markets, this is less about one winner—and more about volatility.
Sources & Links:
NOAA Climate Divisions (Jan 2025 Temps): https://psl.noaa.gov
PDO Monitoring: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
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