Golden Pass LNG: When Supply Arrives Before the Ships
- Timothy Beggans
- Jan 18
- 2 min read
Golden Pass LNG was expected to begin loading its first cargoes from Train 1 as early as February 2026. Instead, the project appears to be moving through commissioning more slowly than many market participants had penciled in, pushing meaningful volumes further out on the calendar.
That timing matters. U.S. dry natural gas production has climbed to roughly 113 Bcf/d, as producers positioned supply in anticipation of new LNG demand—Golden Pass being one of the largest upcoming catalysts. With feedgas demand from the facility still limited, those incremental molecules are now landing in a market that hasn’t yet found its outlet.
The result is a temporary oversupply, compounded by modest winter temperatures across the U.S. South, where heating demand has underperformed expectations. Storage balances have loosened, regional basis has softened, and prompt-month pricing reflects a market waiting for exports to catch up with production.
Pipeline data around the Golden Pass corridor shows ample capacity available, underscoring that infrastructure is largely ready. What’s missing is sustained liquefaction pull. Until Golden Pass transitions from testing and commissioning into steady commercial operations, upstream volumes will continue to outrun demand.
Zooming out, this doesn’t change the structural outlook for U.S. LNG. Golden Pass remains a cornerstone project in the next wave of export growth, and 2026 is still shaping up to be a pivotal year for global LNG flows. But in the near term, the pace of ramp-up—not the nameplate capacity—will dictate market balance.
For producers, traders, and policymakers, Golden Pass is a reminder that in LNG markets, timing is everything. When supply shows up before demand, even world-class projects can create short-term dislocations.
Sources & Further Reading
Golden Pass LNG project tracker: https://www.gasnom.com/ip/goldenpass/
Energy Transfer pipeline capacity postings (Gulf Run): https://pipelines.energytransfer.com/ipost/capacity/operationally-available-by-location?asset=GR
Kpler – Top LNG and natural gas market drivers for 2026: https://www.kpler.com/blog/natural-gas-and-lng-top-5-market-drivers-for-2026
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