Fog Majeure: When Weather, Not Contracts, Stops LNG Flow
- Timothy Beggans
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
Force Majeure usually points to hurricanes or mechanical failures. But along the U.S. Gulf Coast, a quieter risk is emerging—“Fog Majeure.”
This term captures a growing operational reality: LNG terminals can be physically unable to move cargo when dense sea fog shuts down tanker traffic, even when demand is strong and contracts are firm.
Why it happens
Gulf of Mexico sea fog is most prevalent in winter. It forms when warm, moist air flows over cooler shelf waters, often under light winds and high humidity. Visibility can drop below safe navigation thresholds for pilots and tugs, halting vessel transits in narrow ship channels. These events typically last from several hours to a few days, but multi-day episodes are not uncommon during persistent weather patterns.
Why it matters now
Fog alone isn’t new—but its impact is amplified when LNG tankage is full and onshore natural gas storage is tight. If tankers cannot berth or depart:
LNG storage tanks reach operational limits
Feedgas nominations must be curtailed
Pipeline imbalances ripple back into regional gas markets
In short, logistics—not supply—becomes the binding constraint.
Mitigation strategies
LNG operators can’t control the weather, but they can reduce exposure:
Maintain buffer space in LNG tanks during peak fog season
Improve coordination with shipping agents, pilots, and tug operators
Stagger cargo arrivals and build schedule flexibility
Enhance short-term forecasting and decision-making using marine bulletins
Diversify offtake timing and destinations where possible
The takeaway
As U.S. LNG exports scale higher, micro-disruptions matter more. Fog Majeure is a reminder that energy markets hinge not just on molecules and megawatts—but on visibility, timing, and logistics.
Links
Moran Shipping – Gulf Coast Sea Fog Forecast (Daily Bulletin): https://www.moranshipping.com
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