NG/LNG - This Week's Main Drivers and the Look Ahead | 10.4.26
This Week's Main Drivers:
EIA NG Storage: +64 BCF vs. +56 BCF last year and +80 BCF for the 5-year average. The injection was larger than last year but still below the seasonal norm.
China has urged its “Big 3” energy companies—CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec—to halt or reduce LNG resales through the winter, potentially tightening global spot LNG availability.
LNG Canada reached FID on Phase 2, doubling planned capacity from 14 to 28 MTPA and reinforcing Canada’s role in Pacific LNG supply.
QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison into December as Hormuz disruptions continue.
Petrobras signed a 22-year LNG SPA with Cheniere for approximately 0.8 MTPA, adding another long-term outlet for U.S. LNG.
Hurricane Polo brought substantial rainfall into West Texas and New Mexico, improving moisture conditions in some areas but also creating flooding concerns.
Golden Pass LNG continues its gradual Train 1 commissioning, with full ramp-up still being watched closely.
The Look Ahead:
Enercast forecasts roughly 32 Bcf/d of new U.S. pipeline capacity through 2027, adding potential takeaway and market-access capacity.
El Niño continues to strengthen, with NOAA indicating a potential historic event. The key question: does it persist after New Year’s, or does it fade - potentially allowing colder air to penetrate the U.S.?
U.S. nuclear outages are rising as maintenance accelerates ahead of winter.
Cove Point LNG is expected to return from maintenance around October 10–13th.
The Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with El Niño, Saharan dust and wind shear limiting development.
New England could see below-normal temperatures around October 7.
The Jones Act waiver currently expires November 15 unless extended.
Geopolitics remain a wildcard: Russia’s war posture and attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue to add uncertainty heading into winter.
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