Natural Gas Weekly Recap November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.984) | 10.02.2026
Tim Beggans recaps a quiet Friday bid that looks like weekend short covering, with November still below the 13- and 48-period EMAs. Also: yesterday’s +64 Bcf print, Polo’s 3.5 inches of rain in Montgomery County, ERCOT gas share above 50% on a cloudy light-load day, Jan–Dec holding a Super El Niño premium, EU storage stuck near 71.5%, a third U.S. carrier into the Middle East, UK injections with Rough still empty, Polo’s remnants reaching New England, three ships at Sabine Pass, Golden Pass back down to ~206k, Fay’s remnants at 10%, nuclear outages at 12.3 GW, and the E&P watch list.
Contract / levels:
November near 2.973–2.984, up ~0.6–1.7¢
Still below the 13- and 48-period EMAs
Daily pivot ~2.978
Second support held ~2.904
Weekend short covering; RSI trying to turn up
Storage (yesterday):
+64 Bcf, on consensus
Bearish vs last year +56
Bullish vs the 5-year average +80
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps
0:00 – Open: weekend short covering; still below the EMAs
0:43 – Polo rain in Montgomery County
0:57 – Hourly pivot & second support
1:32 – EIA +64 Bcf
1:56 – ERCOT under 65 GW; gas still greater than 53% of fuel mix
2:37 – National grid (PJM, MISO)
2:59 – U.S. models: Calgary / Rockies cold vs southern warmth
4:29 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks
4:52 – Jan–Dec spread vs a Super El Niño winter
5:37 – EU storage 71.5%; third U.S. carrier to the Middle East
6:33 – Dutch TTF January; Hormuz headlines
7:02 – Europe weather into mid-October
7:39 – UK flows: injecting; nothing to NL/Belgium; Rough empty
8:29 – Asia weather
9:06 – Pacific storms; Lake Gatun at 85 ft; Polo remnants to New England
10:20 – Sabine Pass loaders; U.S. LNG (Golden Pass back to ~206k)
11:39 – Gulf convection
12:00 – Fay remnants, 10% chance
12:31 – Yucatan / Bay of Campeche hazard window
12:52 – Saharan dust quiet
13:05 – Nuclear outages (~12.3 GW)
13:27 – Cold pool vs 2015 El Niño; Feb–Mar watch
13:52 – E&P watch list
14:09 – Recap & close
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