Mid-Week Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.990) | 09.30.2026
Mid-Week Natural Gas Report – November Futures (NGX26)
Tim Beggans covers the last day of September and Q3, with November still giving back the MX-P 100 squeeze and a bearish 13/48 EMA cross. Also: thin ERCOT gas share on strong wind, national grid spikes, the switch to fall temperature maps, a Nov–Mar strip still in the sell channel, Thursday’s neutral storage setup, EU/UK storage (Rough still empty), Asia weather, no Ras Laffan loader, two ships at Plaquemines, U.S. LNG with Golden Pass wobbling again, Rachel strengthening offshore, Polo moisture into Texas / New Mexico, Lake Gatun, and the E&P watch list.
Contract / levels:
November near 2.971–2.990, down ~2–4¢
13- and 48-period EMAs crossed back down after MX-P 100 returned
Path of least resistance toward 2.90
Daily pivot ~3.056
First support ~2.955 (holding); RSI oversold
Last day of September / Q3 — hedge-fund window dressing
Storage (Thursday):
Expected +63 to +67 Bcf
Last year +56 / 5-year average +80
Neutral print: bearish vs last year, bullish vs the 5-year
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps
0:00 – Open: November fade after MX-P 100 returns; Q3 window dressing
0:59 – Hourly pivot & first support; RSI oversold
1:21 – ERCOT: gas only ~32% of fuel mix on strong wind
1:56 – National grid spikes (CAISO, SPP, PJM, NYISO)
2:29 – New fall temperature maps; Rockies nights cooling
3:51 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks
4:17 – Nov–Mar strip still in the sell channel (~3.216)
4:45 – Thursday storage preview (+63 to +67 Bcf)
5:16 – EU storage 71.3%; Germany / NL / UK lag
5:55 – UK NBP; Hormuz & cooler weather
6:09 – Europe weather into Oct 7
6:49 – UK flows: no draws, some injection; Rough empty
7:42 – Asia weather; typhoon toward Japan
8:23 – Nolo remnants, Rachel, Polo moisture into TX / NM
9:10 – Rachel strengthening offshore
9:28 – India southern drought
9:37 – No Ras Laffan loader; two ships at Plaquemines
9:56 – U.S. LNG terminals (Golden Pass back to ~485k)
11:11 – Gulf quiet; Hannah 40 mph
11:39 – Wider tropics; Polo remnants
12:04 – Hazard outlook & Saharan dust
12:40 – Hawaii cold pool vs El Niño warm pool
13:06 – Lake Gatun / Panama Canal
13:36 – E&P watch list
13:55 – Recap & close
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