What's New in Natural Gas - October Futures Expiration (NGV26 @ 3.080) | 09.28.2026
Tim Beggans covers four headlines on October expiry day: Columbia Gas lifting the MX-P 100 force majeure, thin October open interest, EU storage at ~70% with a month of injections left, and a nor’easter that slammed New Jersey. Also: ERCOT still burning a lot of gas on low wind, a bifurcated U.S. weather map (southern 90s vs Canadian cold into the Plains), the crowded Super El Niño winter channel, UK storage with Rough still empty, JKM off on Hormuz talks, Kitimat’s first weekend loader, U.S. LNG (Plaquemines strong, Golden Pass still lagging), Fay that won’t die plus Polo rain into the Permian, nuclear outages ramping, drought, ENSO fading toward neutral by spring, and the E&P watch list.
Top news:
Top News for Natural Gas:
1.) Columbia Gas lifts FM
2.) October futures expire today
3.) EU NG storage 70% full with one month left
4.) Nor'easter slams New Jersey
Contract / levels:
October near 3.080–3.087, down ~11¢
Still above the 13- and 48-period EMAs
Daily pivot ~3.173
First support ~3.113 (through)
Second support ~3.029
October futures OI only ~2,833 — very thin, very volatile
November becomes front month tomorrow
Timestamps
0:00 – Open & top four headlines
0:50 – October expiry; still above the EMAs
1:25 – Hourly pivot & supports
1:57 – Thin October open interest (~2.8k)
2:18 – Columbia Gas FM lifted
2:35 – ERCOT: cooler week, gas still ~51% of fuel mix
3:23 – National grid (SPP spike, fall maintenance)
3:58 – U.S. models: Calgary cold vs Gulf 90s
5:29 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day (Polo rain in Texas)
5:56 – Super El Niño winter channel
6:25 – EU storage ~70–71%; Germany / UK lag
7:07 – Europe weather
7:59 – UK flows; Isle of Grain / Milford Haven; Rough empty
9:14 – JKM off on Hormuz talks
9:44 – Asia weather
10:19 – Pacific storm train; Fay still alive; Gonzalo gone
11:03 – India monsoon vs southern drought
11:19 – Kitimat LNG loader departing
11:36 – U.S. LNG terminals
12:48 – Gulf convection; Fay 35 mph; 80% wave NW of Fay
13:24 – NJ nor’easter wrapping up
13:47 – Hazard outlook; Polo rain into Permian / DFW
15:04 – Saharan dust
15:26 – Nuclear outages (~10.4 GW; Callaway & Cooper offline)
15:49 – Drought monitor
16:05 – El Niño / Hawaii cold pool & jet stream
16:42 – ENSO models into spring 2027
17:16 – E&P watch list
17:41 – Recap: last day of October; November tomorrow
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