Daily Natural Gas Report - October Futures (NGV26 @ 3.126) | 09.25.2026
Tim Beggans covers the giveback after yesterday’s squeeze to 3.317: a Columbia Gas / TCO force majeure of ~1.8 Bcf/d on Line MX-P 100 in West Virginia (weekend outage, Sunday update), yesterday’s +53 Bcf print, Friday options / Monday futures expiry, ERCOT and a volatile national grid plus an early East Coast nor’easter, the last heat-risk maps, Canadian cold into the Upper Midwest, the Nov–Mar strip snapping back into its channel, EU/UK storage (Rough still empty), Asia weather, two Ras Laffan loaders, U.S. LNG, Fay + new Tropical Storm Gonzalo + Category 5 Hurricane Polo aimed at Baja / Permian rain, nuclear outages, ENSO / Hawaii cold pool, and the E&P watch list.
Contract / levels:
October near 3.126, down ~17¢ (~5%)
Yesterday’s high 3.317
Daily pivot ~3.198
First support ~3.078
Friday options expiry; Monday October futures expiry
Storage (yesterday):
+53 Bcf vs last year +77 and 5-year average +76
~1 Bcf above consensus — historically bullish, near-term neutral
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps
0:00 – Open: fade after the squeeze; TCO outage
0:57 – Hourly pivot, first support, expiry calendar
1:30 – EIA +53 Bcf
2:00 – October futures OI & $3 / $3.25 options
2:43 – Columbia Gas force majeure (~1.8 Bcf/d, MX-P 100)
3:47 – ERCOT load; gas still beats wind + solar
4:20 – National grid (MISO, SPP, PJM) & East Coast nor’easter
5:02 – Last week of U.S. heat-risk maps
5:39 – Models: Calgary / Dakotas / Chicago cold
7:14 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks
7:29 – Nov–Mar winter strip
8:03 – EU storage (Poland full; Germany / UK lag)
8:31 – UK January NBP; Hormuz talks
9:04 – Europe weather
9:35 – UK flows; Rough still empty (~36% full)
10:41 – Asia weather into early October
11:27 – India rains; Pacific storm train; Polo eyewall
12:32 – Polo track toward Permian moisture
13:05 – Ras Laffan (Bu Samra + Al Kharsaah); quiet Hormuz
13:33 – U.S. LNG terminals (Golden Pass ~551k)
15:06 – Fay 50 mph; Tropical Storm Gonzalo
15:50 – Early nor’easter off New Jersey; Gulf quiet
16:36 – Hazard outlook & Saharan dust vs Gonzalo
17:01 – U.S. nuclear outages (~7.4–7.5 GW)
17:29 – El Niño / Hawaii cold pool & jet stream
18:04 – E&P watch list
18:25 – Recap & close
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