Natural Gas Weekly Recap - August Futures (NGQ26 @ 2.895) | 07.17.2026
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro & August Spot Contract Update
0:35 - Hourly Chart & Technical Analysis (RSI)
0:49 - Current Weather & Heat Index Impacts
1:12 - EIA Storage Report Analysis
1:35 - April-October Injection Strip for 2027
2:10 - ERCOT Market: Wind, Solar, and Fuel Mix
2:36 - US Power Grid & Regional Pain Points (PJM, MISO, SPP)
3:07 - 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
3:35 - National Heat Risk & Extreme Heat Forecast
4:22 - Long-Range Heat Index Model (July 24th Onward)
5:11 - Europe Weather Relief & Storage Problems
5:51 - UK Natural Gas Prices vs. Henry Hub
6:13 - EU & Asia Storage and Temperature Trends
6:55 - S&P Global Report: US LNG Export Growth through 2040
7:31 - Global LNG Tanker Activity & Straight of Hormuz Update
8:21 - US LNG Terminal Flows (Freeport, Cameron, Sabine Pass)
9:18 - Golden Pass Ramp-up Outlook
9:41 - US Nuclear Fleet Status
10:09 - Tropical Outlook & Saharan Air Layer (Dust)
10:54 - Canadian Wildfire Smoke Impacts
11:15 - Natural Gas Stock Performance (One-Week Recap)
11:49 - Market Summary & Conclusion
In today's update for Friday, July 17th, 2026, Tim Begins, President of Elk Trading Company, breaks down the current state of the natural gas market as the August spot contract sees a modest bounce.
We dive into the technicals of the "dead cat bounce" and short covering following a week of downward pressure. This episode covers the latest EIA storage numbers, showing US stocks remaining comfortable at 6.4% above the five-year average, while contrasting this with the ongoing storage struggles and higher prices in Europe and the UK.
Key highlights include:
Weather Impacts: Analysis of the southern heat dome, the "inverted" weather pattern heading into winter, and how Canadian wildfire smoke and Saharan dust are affecting the grid.
Power & Infrastructure: A look at ERCOT's fuel mix, regional power grid pain points, and the high performance of the US nuclear fleet.
LNG Outlook: Discussion on the S&P Global report forecasting US LNG to capture 30% of the global market by 2040, plus updates on Freeport and Golden Pass.
Equities: A recap of a "sea of green" for natural gas stocks (weighted $2B-$10B) despite the recent dip in commodity prices.
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | MGY | MTDR | NOG
How do you see the weather shaping the LNG market next week? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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