Natural Gas Big Picture Outlook – Monthly Update August 2025
- Timothy Beggans
- Aug 26
- 1 min read
The global natural gas market is navigating a mix of bullish and bearish signals as we move through late summer 2025:
Bearish Factors:
Europe: Prices hit a 15-month low on August 15 as storage sits at a comfortable 75.3% full and mild weather limits demand.
China LNG: Imports fell 6.7% in July and are down 19% year-to-date (Bloomberg), reflecting weak industrial demand.
China Pipelines: Flows on the Power of Siberia pipeline are up 25% YoY, adding incremental supply.
China Domestic Production: Output rose 7.5% YoY in July, further reducing LNG import needs.
U.S. Weather: The 8–14 day outlook shows cooler-than-normal conditions across the Midwest and Southeast, cutting into late-summer cooling demand.
U.S. Nuclear: Outages are at a five-year low, reducing gas-for-power burn.
Bullish Factors:
Norway: Pipeline flows into Europe are constrained by planned maintenance through September, tightening supply.
U.S. Supply: The Baker Hughes rig count slipped by one, with Permian oil rigs down 51 vs. last year, raising questions on associated gas supply growth.
Big Picture: Global natural gas remains under bearish pressure from strong European storage and soft Chinese LNG demand, compounded by higher domestic Chinese output and increased pipeline imports. Still, supply-side risks from Norwegian maintenance and U.S. drilling declines may limit further downside, keeping the market stable.
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