La Niña is Coming This Fall — What It Means for Natural Gas Traders
- Timothy Beggans
- Jul 17
- 2 min read
As we approach Fall 2025, climate indicators point to the development of a weak to moderate La Niña event. For natural gas traders, this signals a shift in U.S. weather dynamics that could have significant implications for supply, demand, and price volatility.
Here’s what to expect regionally:
Pacific Northwest: Cooler and wetter than average—supportive of early-season snowpack and hydropower generation.
Northern Plains & Midwest: Colder temps and increased snowfall could spike heating demand and support storage draws.
Southern Tier (CA to the Carolinas): Warmer and drier—reduced heating demand but elevated drought risk, which could impair thermal generation and impact gas-fired electricity demand.
Ohio River Valley & Southeast: Wetter in the Ohio Valley and drier in the Southeast—watch for localized demand shifts and pipeline flow patterns.
Key Implications for Natural Gas Markets:
Hurricane Risk: La Niña typically reduces wind shear in the Atlantic, boosting hurricane potential. Gulf Coast production and LNG terminals remain vulnerable.
Storage & Pricing: A colder-than-average northern tier could accelerate early-winter draws, particularly if AO/NAO trends support Arctic intrusions.
Regional Spreads: Expect volatility in basis markets as infrastructure is tested by load swings and storm-related disruptions.
Caution for Traders: The strength of La Niña matters. A weak event may produce muted effects compared to past cycles. And don’t overlook the influence of AO/NAO oscillations—they often act as wildcards in late-fall and winter weather patterns.
Stay nimble. The season ahead may reward traders who monitor ENSO trends closely and position accordingly.
Resources for tracking La Niña and model updates:
🔗 ONI Index: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
🔗 NOAA Climate Divisions: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
🔗 Forecast models: https://www.spaghettimodels.com/
📊 Visual outlook: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GvhwP4gX0AETz1-?format=jpg&name=large
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