PJM Reopens the Queue — And Natural Gas Is Back in the Driver’s Seat
- Timothy Beggans
- May 2
- 2 min read
After years of delays and reform, the PJM Interconnection has officially reopened its interconnection queue—and the response has been immediate and massive.
Queue Cycle #1 attracted 800+ projects totaling ~220 GW of capacity.
What stands out: natural gas is the single largest fuel type in the queue, even as renewables dominate project count.
That headline deserves a second look.
Historically, only a small fraction of interconnection requests actually reach commercial operation—often less than 20–25%. Attrition is driven by permitting hurdles, rising capital costs, transmission constraints, and shifting market economics.
So what does this mean for PJM’s supply/demand balance?
1) Reliability vs. Reality - Gas projects in the queue signal a market response to tightening reserve margins and dispatchable capacity needs. But if most never get built, the perceived reliability backstop may not materialize.
2) Renewable Saturation Meets Grid Constraints - Solar and storage dominate project count, but face interconnection bottlenecks and curtailment risk. Without sufficient transmission upgrades, many projects stall—delaying incremental supply.
3) Tightening Capacity Outlook - If completion rates remain low across both gas and renewables, PJM could face a structurally tighter capacity market. This supports higher capacity prices and increased volatility—especially during peak demand periods.
4) Gas as the “Insurance Policy” - Even if only a subset of gas projects move forward, they may disproportionately shape forward supply expectations. Gas remains the most financeable, dispatchable hedge against intermittency.
Bottom line:
The queue reopening is not a supply surge—it’s an option set. Until projects clear the gauntlet of economics and interconnection, the real signal may be future scarcity, not abundance.
In a system balancing decarbonization with reliability, execution—not intention—will define PJM’s next decade.
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