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Natural Gas Winter Strip – Is it About to Rally?

  • Writer: Timothy Beggans
    Timothy Beggans
  • 14 hours ago
  • 1 min read


The November 2025–March 2026 natural gas winter strip is heating up, now averaging $3.807, up from a recent low of $3.591. With resistance levels near $3.930 and $4.205, traders are asking: Is a warmer-than-normal winter already priced in? Or will surging power demand from AI-driven data centers ignite a rally?


Let’s look at the bullish vs. bearish scenarios.


Bullish Case


  • LNG exports: Feedgas demand is expected to climb from ~13 Bcf/d today to 17 Bcf/d by late 2025, tightening balances.

  • Data centers & AI growth: Power-hungry data centers could add 3–6 Bcf/d of demand by 2030, with 2025–2026 already showing record load.

  • EIA forecasts: Henry Hub projected at $3.90/MMBtu in Q4 2025 and $4.30 in 2026, as flat production meets stronger demand.

  • Weather risk: A colder-than-expected winter could erase current storage surpluses and lift prices above $4.00.


Bearish Case


  • NOAA outlook: Warmer conditions expected across the southern U.S., with a weak La Niña limiting heating demand.

  • Storage & production: Inventories sit about 5% above the 5-year average, while U.S. output is near 107 Bcf/d—both bearish signals.

  • Mild winter risk: Another warm season could leave surplus inventories, sending prices back toward $3.00.

  • Economic risks: Slower industrial growth and delayed data center buildouts may temper demand.


Both bulls and bears have strong arguments. The market could swing sharply depending on weather, exports, and power sector demand.


👉 What’s your take—rally ahead or more downside?


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