Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.928) | 09.18.2026
Tim Beggans recaps a sideways October market that still can’t hold $3: yesterday’s +44 Bcf print, a widening deficit vs last year, the February / El Niño fade watch, ERCOT with solar now the top renewable, volatile national power prices and data-center load, lingering Dallas–St. Louis heat vs incoming fall, EU/UK storage gaps, Typhoon Dewan staying offshore Japan, quiet Hormuz, mixed U.S. LNG (Cameron back, Freeport and Golden Pass off), a historically quiet Atlantic, ENSO flipping toward neutral by spring, West drought, and the E&P watch list.
Contract / levels:
October near 2.926–2.928, up ~2–3¢
Sideways around 2.90; still unable to hold $3
Daily pivot ~2.906
First resistance ~2.954
$3.006 second resistance
Storage (yesterday):
+44 Bcf vs last year +87 and 5-year average +74
Working gas just under 3.3 Tcf vs greater than 3.4 Tcf last year
South Central greater than 100 Bcf below last year
Next week also set up bullish vs last year and the 5-year
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps
0:00 – Open: October sideways; can’t hold $3
0:53 – Hourly pivot & first resistance
1:23 – EIA +44 Bcf; deficit vs last year; South Central
2:20 – February contract & El Niño fade
2:50 – ERCOT: low wind, solar #1 renewable, winter capacity
3:56 – National grid (MISO spike, PJM, data centers)
4:37 – U.S. heat-risk maps
5:21 – Extended models; fall starts Sept 22
6:01 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks
6:27 – EU / Germany / UK / Netherlands storage
7:25 – Europe weather
8:19 – UK NBP January & UK storage detail (~34% full)
9:31 – Asia weather; Typhoon Dewan offshore Japan
10:19 – Asia temperature maps into early October
11:06 – Ras Laffan empty; quiet Hormuz
11:27 – U.S. LNG terminals (Cameron back; Freeport / Golden Pass off)
12:56 – Tropics: Mid-Atlantic dead; Azores 20–30%
13:55 – Saharan dust; possible zero-hurricane Atlantic
14:10 – ENSO into spring/summer 2027
14:37 – Drought monitor
15:04 – E&P watch list
15:19 – Recap & close
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