Mexico's Natural Gas Reality Check: AI, Power Demand, and a Growing Dependence on U.S. Supply
- Timothy Beggans
- 5 hours ago
- 2 min read
Mexico is making one of the largest natural gas infrastructure bets in its history, but a fundamental question remains: can domestic production keep pace with soaring demand?
The Mexican government recently unveiled an $8.1 billion investment plan through 2030 to expand, modernize, and maintain its 21,149-kilometer pipeline network. CENAGAS alone plans to add 3.64 Bcf/d of new transportation capacity, while CFE is building pipelines to supply 13 new gas-fired power plants that will add 4.56 GW of generation capacity to the grid.
Yet Mexico's dependence on U.S. natural gas continues to deepen.
Pipeline imports from the United States averaged a record 6.63 Bcf/d in 2025, with much of the supply sourced from West Texas via the Wahalajara corridor. Despite government efforts to boost energy security, imported gas still accounts for roughly 70% of Mexico's dry gas consumption.
Pemex is targeting a major production increase, aiming to grow gross natural gas output from approximately 3.5 Bcf/d to 5.0 Bcf/d by 2030. However, the challenge isn't total production—it's usable production. While gross output has improved, dry gas production remains near 1.7 Bcf/d due to high volumes of associated gas and limited processing infrastructure.
At the same time, a new demand wave is emerging.
AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and nearshoring are transforming Mexico's energy landscape. The Mexican Association of Data Centers projects 1.5 GW of new data center capacity by 2030 and more than $18 billion in investment, with Querétaro serving as the epicenter of growth. Industry forecasts suggest total Mexican natural gas demand could climb from roughly 9 Bcf/d today to as much as 15 Bcf/d over the next decade.
The result is clear: Mexico's future power growth, industrial expansion, and AI ambitions will require significantly more natural gas. Unless domestic dry gas production and processing capacity accelerate dramatically, U.S. pipeline exports are likely to remain the backbone of Mexico's energy system for years to come.
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