It’s Hot Outside—Why Are Natural Gas Prices Falling?
- Timothy Beggans
- Jul 29
- 1 min read
Late July typically brings peak cooling demand—and rising natural gas prices. But in late July 2025, prices are sliding. Why?
The answer lies in the quiet revolution reshaping the U.S. power grid: renewables and coal are grabbing market share during a critical time of year for natural gas demand.
Take ERCOT, the Texas grid operator. At 4 p.m. on July 27, 2025, ERCOT demand was 77,000 MW. Astonishingly, wind and solar combined supplied 40,000 MW, or 52% of that load. Wind output is usually weakest in August, but this year solar is making up the difference. Solar capacity in ERCOT has soared to 31,546 MW, and it’s still climbing.
Meanwhile, coal is quietly staging a comeback. According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation is forecast to rise from 16% in 2024 to 17% in 2025, before retreating again in 2026.
Natural gas, long the go-to for peaking power during summer heat waves, is facing more competition than ever. As renewables grow and coal temporarily regains footing, gas demand is feeling the squeeze—even in the heat of summer.
Markets are watching this transition closely. For traders and energy professionals, understanding this dynamic is essential: weather alone no longer drives natural gas prices.
#EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #ERCOT #Renewables #SolarPower #WindEnergy #CoalPower #ElectricityGrid #AIinEnergy #EnergyTransition #EIA #CleanTech
Comments