Natural Gas Weekly Recap - December Futures (NGZ26 @ 2.876) | 10.30.2026
Tim Beggans recaps a continued fade in the new December spot contract, still well below the 13- and 48-period EMAs with the RSI oversold. Also: yesterday’s +80 Bcf print (above the ~73 Bcf expectation) versus last year +75 and the five-year +77, the next two weeks turning more bearish, the South Central deficit narrowing from ~150 Bcf toward ~100 Bcf, the winter strip testing new lows, warm 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks into mid-November, EU storage slipping from 75%, UK net withdrawals with Rough still empty (~41%), TTF December near $32/MMBtu, Freeport still volatile, Golden Pass near 775k, nuclear outages near 17.5 GW, and a mixed-to-green E&P tape.
Contract / levels:
December near 2.871–2.876, down ~7.6–8.1¢ (~2.5–3%)
Well below 13- and 48-period EMAs
RSI still oversold
Daily pivot ~2.974
First support ~2.874 (hovering)
Second support ~2.797
Jan–Feb–Mar strip testing new lows; possible short-term bottom if it can re-enter the channel
Storage (yesterday):
Actual +80 Bcf (expected ~+73)
Last year +75 / 5-year average +77
Bearish versus both; next two weeks also set up bearish on the warm pattern
Affiliate link(s):
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps0:00 – Open: December fade, still oversold
0:49 – Hourly below pivot; first support
1:15 – Storage print +80 Bcf (above expectations)
1:40 – South Central deficit narrowing (EBW chart)
2:19 – Jan–Feb–Mar strip testing new lows
2:45 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks still warm
3:16 – ERCOT: light renewables, gas ~53% of fuel mix
3:52 – Regional power markets (PJM spike)
4:11 – Euro model: Rockies cold vs lingering southern warmth
5:20 – Polar air locked north of Canada / eastern Siberia
5:40 – EU storage slips from 75%; Germany 62%
6:03 – Europe weather: cold then warmer
6:38 – UK flows: net withdrawing; Rough still empty (~41%)
7:21 – UK gas share of power mix ~36%
7:39 – Asia temps; 91B into India, Inva toward Japan
8:17 – Vance roaming Baja (possible Permian moisture)
8:38 – India drought
8:51 – TTF December ~$32/MMBtu
9:13 – Asia models: cold into Korea / Japan
9:48 – Hormuz attack; Kitimat active
10:25 – U.S. LNG (Freeport still volatile; Golden Pass ~775k)
11:18 – Nuclear outages (~17.5 GW)
11:31 – Gulf quiet; heavy Texas cloud cover
11:43 – Teleconnections turning negative
12:01 – Stratospheric warming & jet-stream changes
14:12 – Arctic ice & more snow in western Canada
14:31 – E&P watch list (recovery)
15:09 – Recap & close
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