Mid-Week Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.780) | 10.28.2026
Tim Beggans covers November expiration day with a relief rally still sitting below the 13- and 48-period EMAs and very little open interest left. Also: December becoming spot tomorrow with a +67 Bcf storage setup versus last year +75 and the five-year +77, the next two weeks turning bearish on warm weather, a Jan–Dec spread still wide under Super El Niño conditions, the winter strip flushing below its channel, warm 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks into mid-November, EU storage peaking below 77% with Germany at a new all-time low near 62%, Infa toward Taiwan and Vance moisture into the Permian, Freeport still unstable, Golden Pass near 789k with a vessel loading, nuclear outages at a five-year low near 17 GW, a one-and-done Atlantic hurricane season, and a mixed E&P tape.
Contract / levels:
November near 2.780–2.797, up ~8.3–10¢ (~3.1–3.7%) on expiration day
Below 13- and 48-period EMAs
RSI pointing up (relief rally)
Open interest only ~10,405 (down over 17k) — shorts rolling into Dec–April
December near first resistance ~3.066–3.075, up ~7¢ (~2.4%)
Jan–Dec spread ~44.8¢ (normal winter ~25¢)
Storage (Thursday):
Expected ~+67 Bcf
Last year +75 / 5-year average +77
Constructive versus both this week, but the following two weeks turn bearish on the warm pattern
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG
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Timestamps
0:00 – Open: November expiration day, relief rally
0:46 – Open interest collapsed; shorts rolling into winter
1:09 – December becomes spot; storage preview (+67 Bcf)
1:44 – December testing first resistance
2:15 – Jan–Dec spread still wide under Super El Niño
2:55 – Winter strip flushed below the channel
3:46 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks still warm
4:04 – ERCOT demand ~63 GW
4:38 – National grid quieter (PJM spike)
4:59 – Pivotal models: Calgary cold into New Mexico
5:46 – Cold air locked north of Greenland / eastern Siberia
6:23 – EU storage peaking below 77%; Germany new low
7:20 – Europe turns cold early November
7:56 – Asia storms (Arnab, Infa, Vance)
8:46 – Asia models: big cold push into China / Korea / Japan
9:29 – Gulf of Aden incident; Golden Pass loading
10:06 – U.S. LNG (Freeport still a mess; Golden Pass ~789k)
11:26 – Nuclear outages at a 5-year low (~17 GW)
11:42 – Gulf and Atlantic quiet (one-and-done season)
11:58 – Teleconnections & SSW watch for mid-November
12:52 – Jet-stream ensembles (possible glancing blow NE)
14:24 – Arctic ice expanding on the Russian side
14:43 – E&P watch list (mixed)
15:15 – Recap & close
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