Mid-Week Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.838) | 10.21.2026
Tim Beggans covers a sharp break that took November below the 2.90 support and outside the recent range, with the 13- and 48-period EMAs crossing down. Also: warm 6–10 and 8–14 day forecasts, Freeport volatility, open interest above 173k with one week left until expiration, light ERCOT wind supporting gas share, power spikes in the Northeast, a Nov–Dec spread targeting the 50-day, UK net withdrawals with Rough still empty, EU storage at 74.6%, Hurricane Chambi toward Taiwan then Korea/Japan, continued Hormuz attacks, Golden Pass briefly above 800k, nuclear outages at 19.9 GW, a strong polar vortex trapping cold in the Arctic, and a mostly red E&P tape.
Contract / levels:
November near 2.832–2.838, down ~12.5–13.1¢ (~4.4%+)
13- and 48-period EMAs crossed down
New decade lows; well below prior support near 2.90
Hourly around / below third support ~2.842 (peak selling zone)
Open interest over 173k; expires next Wednesday
Nov–Dec spread ~37.8¢ (targeting 50-day near 40.5¢)
Storage (Thursday):
Expected ~+82 Bcf
Last year +87 / 5-year average +86
Constructive versus both if the print stays light, but warm forecasts are driving the tape
NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector
Market Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10%
BKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG
Timestamps
0:00 – Open: break below 2.90; EMAs cross down
0:54 – Hourly third support; peak selling zone
1:11 – Storage preview (~+82 Bcf) & warm model focus
1:28 – Open interest over 173k; one week to expiration
1:53 – Options open interest light (mostly futures-driven)
2:27 – ERCOT: wind only ~2,700 MW; gas ~42.5% of fuel mix
2:58 – National grid spikes (NYISO ~$752, PJM)
3:29 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks still warm
3:52 – Nov–Dec spread targeting the 50-day
4:21 – U.S. models: central / Gulf warmth vs limited Canadian cold
5:42 – Europe weather mixed; heat locked east
6:13 – UK flows: net withdrawing; Rough still empty (~46%)
6:55 – EU storage 74.6%; Latvia / Germany / Belgium lag
7:47 – JKM softer
7:59 – Asia weather; severe cold wave into Beijing late month
8:41 – Hurricane Chambi toward Taiwan then Korea / Japan
9:08 – Asia temps
9:29 – Hormuz attacks; Ras Laffan one loader (Pakistan-bound)
10:15 – U.S. LNG (Freeport turbulent; Golden Pass briefly over 800k)
11:16 – Nuclear outages (~19.9 GW)
11:30 – Gulf quiet; northeast storm stays offshore
11:50 – Teleconnections: cold trapped in the Arctic
12:18 – Arctic ice (slight delay)
12:51 – Stratospheric watch
13:22 – E&P watch list (mostly red; Landbridge up)
13:45 – Recap & close
Comments